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Top Five Ideas -- Statistics for Project Management

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John Goodpasture
John Goodpasture

Top Five ideas from statistics that help project managers

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Quantitative Methods Part I Top Five Ideas from Statistics that help Project Management John C Goodpasture Square Peg Consulting www.sqpegconsulting.com www.johngoodpasture.com
Top five ideas from statistics that help project management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Photo:Tom Gazpacho
Top five ideas from statistics that help project management ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Bell Curve is ubiquitous—it’s everywhere! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Events or Measurements Outcome Values EV
Expected Value is the one go-to number for everyone ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* Example: WP1 10% x (60 + 45) + 80% x 50 = 50.5 ** Example: WP1 80% x (55. – 50) 2 +10% x (55-60) 2 + 10% x (55-45) 2
Ban single-point estimates! It’s all about distributions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monte Carlo is a simulation technique that gives quick, useful answers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Run a simulation using a plug-in tool on your scheduler application* The outcome will tend to be bell-curve distributed in almost every case, so the interesting results are in the cumulative probability distribution—this is in effect a confidence data for your outcome, the so-called S-curve Photo John Goodpasture
Everything stretches out when there are dependencies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Time 4 tasks, 2 resources
Read more about it! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
I hope you liked what you saw here ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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